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Strategy
Most $5-50M ARR companies overhire their first marketing leader 12-18 months too early. This tool compares fractional CMO total cost vs senior in-house hire vs Xpand agency model across 12 months — accounting for severance risk, ramp time, and coverage breadth.
12-month risk-adjusted cost
Lowest-cost option: Fractional CMO
Full-time hire
$353,100
Base $281,600 + severance risk $16,500 + ramp opportunity $55,000
Fractional CMO
$144,000
Xpand agency model
$180,000
What this captures
Full-time hire adds severance risk (30% probability × 3-month severance) and 6-month ramp where coverage is 50% effective. Most $5-50M ARR companies overhire their first marketing leader 12-18 months too early — the fractional or agency path defers the hire decision until product-market fit + GTM motion are stable.
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